As the U.S. presidential elections draw near, the potential global impacts of a leadership change are becoming increasingly significant for countries like Azerbaijan. In his analysis, Gubad Ibadoghlu explores which U.S. party’s leadership might be more favorable for Azerbaijan. The document delves into Azerbaijani leadership preferences and the subsequent impact of U.S. policies on Azerbaijan’s economy and international relations.

Azerbaijan’s Leadership Preferences

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has expressed a clear preference for a Republican administration, particularly under Donald Trump. Aliyev cites the absence of wars during Trump’s tenure and the administration’s stance on traditional values, which align with the beliefs of many Azerbaijani citizens, as key reasons for this preference.

Economic and Energy Policy Impacts

The economic policies of the Democratic and Republican parties are poised to significantly affect Azerbaijan, particularly in the energy sector. Democrats, under Joe Biden, focus on renewable energy and climate change initiatives, notably through the Inflation Reduction Act, which aims to promote green industries. While these initiatives are globally progressive, they could limit natural gas supplies, impacting countries like Azerbaijan that are heavily reliant on fossil fuel exports.

On the other hand, Republicans advocate for fewer restrictions on fossil fuels, seeking to sustain the U.S.’s dominant role in the energy market. A potential return of Trump could lead to reduced support for renewable energies and increased incentives to boost domestic oil and gas production. For Azerbaijan, this scenario could result in lower global oil and gas prices, affecting its revenue from energy exports.

International Relations and Future Prospects

Regardless of which U.S. administration takes the helm, the fundamental stance on human rights and regional security in the South Caucasus is anticipated to remain consistent. However, a Republican win may bring about a stronger focus on security issues, potentially aligning more closely with Azerbaijan’s strategic interests.

The outcome of the U.S. elections presents both challenges and opportunities for Azerbaijan. A Democratic administration might encourage Azerbaijan to diversify its economy away from fossil fuels, whereas a Republican administration could provide a more favorable environment for its current economic model. For Azerbaijan, navigating these potential changes will be crucial, particularly as it prepares to host significant international climate events like COP29.

In conclusion, the leadership change in the U.S. could reshape Azerbaijan’s economic landscape and international positioning. Understanding these dynamics will be essential for Azerbaijani policymakers as they adapt to potential shifts in U.S. policies.